What to watch for in 2025

As we head into a new year and a new administration, what should we be looking for in Pebble developments? Will a resource development-friendly administration affect Northern Dynasty Minerals’ (NDM) success in battling regulatory challenges? Will the economy chill – or invigorate – investor appetite for risky investments?

There’s no clear answer to these questions, but there are a few items that readers can be tracking leading into 2025.

Legal challenges

NDM seeks to challenge the EPA’s Final Determination, which effectively blocked the company’s ability to develop the Pebble deposit. In April 2024, the State of Alaska joined NDM’s legal fight against the EPA’s Final Determination by filing its own complaint in U.S. District Court.  

In August 2024, NDM successfully amended its initial complaint, adding the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) as a defendant. The effort to overturn the Final Determination is NDM’s core business objective.

Pebble Partnership finances

Since 2022, the Pebble project has been funded mainly through a royalty agreement that offers future gold and silver production profits to a Royalty Holder in exchange for a total $60 million investment paid in five tranches. The first two tranches for a total of $24 million have been completed, with the balance due by July 26, 2025.

As stated in NDM’s September 30, 2024 Manager’s Discussion and Analysis, it will need more financing to fund its business activity. NDM anticipated costs of $8.6 million alone through June 2025 in support of its legal challenges, including actions against the EPA and USACE. However, it “does not have an arrangement in place for any future financing or raising of funds other than through the Royalty Agreement…As such, there is no assurance that the Company will be able to raise the required additional financing when required.” Watch for the Company’s 2024 year-end statements in April 2025.

Alaska delegation

While Rep. Mary Peltola (D) had proposed a bill codifying the EPA’s protections for Bristol Bay, incoming representative Nick Begich (R) has said that a “scientific, lawful, and comprehensive outcome must determine this process,” and reportedly does not support preemptive actions like the EPA’s Final Determination under 404(c). Neither do Senators Murkowski and Sullivan, but they have explicitly stated they are against Pebble mine.