Critical Minerals Consistency Act, Copper, and China

Would China be the ultimate beneficiary of a developed Pebble mine?

Pebble developer Northern Dynasty Minerals (NDM) cited the Critical Mineral Consistency Act as a favorable indicator that gives CEO Ron Thiessen an optimistic outlook for future development of the Pebble deposit.

The Critical Mineral Consistency Act of 2024 passed the U.S. House of Representatives in November 2024. The bill expanded the definition of “critical mineral” and requires the U.S. Geological Service to amend its list of critical materials whenever the U.S. Department of Energy adds a mineral, element, substance, or material to its critical materials list.*

The Critical Mineral Consistency Act also formally recognizes copper as a critical mineral. When a material or mineral is on this list, it is considered essential for national security and economic prosperity. Inclusion on the list can lead to increased government support for exploration, mining, and processing projects related to that material.

NDM has long argued that development of the Pebble deposit would be an important source of domestic copper for the United States. “Copper is undeniably critical to the US economy,” said Northern Dynasty’s CEO Ron Thiessen in a recent letter to shareholders. “It is important that the U.S. has access to a reliable, secure and responsible supply of the metal. Fortunately, the U.S. has the Pebble Project, the world’s largest undeveloped copper deposit.”

As Pebble Watch has reported previously, plans put forward by the Pebble project call for unrefined ore from the Pebble deposit to be shipped directly to markets in Asia. Refined copper necessary to meet U.S. demand would still have to be imported from outside markets to generate a usable domestic supply. According to copper.org, “Currently, 95% of the nation’s refined copper comes from a combination of imports and domestic production, with Chile, Canada, Peru, and Mexico providing 98% of imported copper. Although these countries have been reliable suppliers, their production is projected to increase by only 6% by 2035 and China is a bigger customer than the US.”

A 2019 report from the U.S. Department of Commerce, developed in coordination with other federal agencies, points out this vulnerability. A Federal Strategy to Ensure Secure and Reliable Supplies of Critical Minerals was developed in response to President Donald Trump’s 2017 Executive Order 13817. It addressed the supply of critical minerals and resiliency of their supply chains, noting:

“Currently, the United States lacks domestic processing and manufacturing capabilities for some critical minerals, which results in the export of domestically produced ores and concentrates for further processing into more value-added products. Lack of domestic processing and manufacturing capabilities for critical materials makes the United States vulnerable to potential geo-economic and geo-political actions from foreign governments that may lead to price and demand volatility for specific minerals, as well as potential supply disruptions causing mineral shortfalls.”

More recently, the Aspen Institute’s 2023 Critical Mineral Policy for the United States, warned that “increasing mining and manufacturing without increasing processing will heighten American reliance on Chinese processing and strengthen China’s ability to use processing as a means of geopolitical and economic leverage.”

According to the World Copper FactBook 2024 developed by the International Copper Study Group, China is the largest consumer of refined copper in the world, and also the largest producer of smelted and refined coppers.

Between 1990 and 2023, China’s share of global copper smelter production increased from 21% to 69% and its global share of refined copper production increased from 19% to 60%. In that same time, the U.S. share of global copper smelter production declined from 39% to 10% and the Americas’ total share of global refined copper production fell from 39% to just 15%.

* The new 199^th Congress began in January 2025 and the bill was reintroduced as H.R. 755. It will need to go through the legislative process again and pass both the House and Senate before it can become law. A companion bill in the Senate, S. 5274, also needs to be reintroduced to move forward.